What It Would Cost the Hawks to Trade Up in the 2026 NBA Draft

The Atlanta Hawks came out of the NBA Draft Lottery with their hands on picks No. 8 and No. 23 — not the top-four windfall they were chasing, but enough to matter in a draft that has scouts buzzing. Now comes the real question: do they stay put, or do they spend to move up?

The short answer is that moving into the top four would cost Atlanta nearly everything they’ve built. And the longer answer isn’t much more encouraging.

Why the Top Four Is Almost Certainly Out of Reach

There’s a reason roughly a third of the NBA was tanking down the stretch this past season. AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson are considered by many evaluators to be among the best group of draft prospects in a decade — and they’re all in the same class. The teams holding those picks didn’t suffer through bad seasons just to hand them away cheaply.

To get to No. 1 or No. 2, Atlanta would likely need to lead with both their 2026 picks (8 and 23), every future first-round pick they can offer — including the less favorable of the Bucks and Pelicans 2027 first (which is top-four protected) — and then stack two or three core players on top of that. We’re talking names like Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Asa Newell, and Onyeka Okongwu. Trading back to No. 8 is a massive ask for any lottery team, and no front office is making that deal without a package they genuinely can’t refuse.

To climb to No. 3 or No. 4 would still require all of Atlanta’s available picks plus one or two of those same players. The math doesn’t work, and more importantly, it would gut the core of a team that just pushed the New York Knicks to six games in the first round — a result that looks even more impressive now that the Knicks have since handled the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Hawks shouldn’t be making that call. Not this summer.

A More Realistic Path: Moving to No. 5

The Los Angeles Clippers landed at No. 5 and could be a conversation worth having. Cleveland traded for Darius Garland at the deadline in February, which raises a fair question about whether the Clippers actually want to add another guard at that slot — or whether they’d prefer to slide back and collect assets while someone else takes the risk on a prospect who might not fit their current roster construction.

Getting to No. 5 would likely cost Atlanta both picks — the 8 and the 23. Whether it also requires a future first or a player like Risacher is where the deal gets complicated. If it’s just the two picks, the Hawks would probably listen. Anything beyond that, and the math starts breaking down fast, especially given how quickly the value drops after the top lottery selections in this draft.

With so many eligible players choosing to return to school — lured by NIL money and the chance to boost their stock for next year — the depth below the top ten has taken a real hit. That makes it genuinely hard to know what moving down to 23 is actually worth to any potential trade partner. Teams at 15 or 17 may not be eager to go that far back.

Mid-Range Moves: Chicago and Oklahoma City

Two names worth watching in the 15-to-17 range: the Chicago Bulls (No. 15) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 17).

The Bulls connection is interesting given that former Hawks executive Bryson Graham is now running their front office — there’s a relationship there that could grease the wheels on a deal. Could Atlanta send Risacher and the 23rd pick to Chicago for No. 15? It’s the kind of creative move that makes sense on paper for both sides.

Oklahoma City has a roster crunch coming into next season and might be open to collecting future assets rather than developing another young piece right now. The Hawks could potentially send a future first to the Thunder in exchange for moving up to 17 while holding onto 23.

Neither move is a slam dunk, but both are far more grounded in reality than chasing the top four.

The History of Picking Eighth

If any Atlanta fans needed a reality check on what the No. 8 pick typically delivers, the last 20 years of history provides it.

The list of recent No. 8 picks includes some genuinely good players — Dyson Daniels, who just won the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award, and Franz Wagner, who has flashed All-Star upside when healthy in Orlando. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope won two championships (with the Lakers in the bubble and the Nuggets in 2023) as a reliable 3-and-D starter. Rudy Gay had a long, productive career and was central to Memphis’s “Grit N Grind” era.

But the list also includes Scoot Dillingham, who was traded at the deadline after a rocky start in Minnesota. Jarace Walker has been a rotation big for Indiana without breaking through. Egor Demin showed promise for Brooklyn before injuries intervened. The pattern is clear: finding a franchise-altering talent at No. 8 is genuinely hard, and the hits are outnumbered by the near-misses.

General manager Onsi Saleh has made smart moves since taking over — Alexander-Walker’s signing last offseason looks like one of the best value contracts in the league — but his drafting track record is still being written. Asa Newell showed encouraging offensive flashes in his rookie season, but one year is too small a sample to draw conclusions.

Prospects to Avoid at 8 and 23

With so many names floating around the 8-to-23 range — Keaton Wagler, Kingston Flemings, Darius Acuff, Mikel Brown Jr., Aday Mara among them — Atlanta will need to do serious homework. But there are a few names the Hawks should probably steer clear of.

Tennessee forward Nate Ament has the highest boom-or-bust ceiling in this entire draft. The length and size are there, but his profile overlaps significantly with Risacher — a wing who needs development time and carries real shooting inconsistency. If Risacher is already a project on the roster, adding another one doesn’t make the team better in the near term.

Peat had a difficult NBA combine, with his shooting struggles drawing exactly the kind of scrutiny that tends to follow a prospect into draft night. The athleticism is real, but the inability to create his own shot or defend at a high level makes him a risky pick at 23.

And then there’s Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner — measured under 5’11” and 166 pounds at the combine. He tests well in certain areas, but in a league that’s increasingly moving away from undersized guards, the size concern is going to follow him everywhere. Unless he returns to school, he’ll be a polarizing name when the draft board gets tight.

What the Roster Looks Like Heading Into the Offseason

Beyond the draft, Atlanta has real decisions to make. The projected starting five heading into next season — CJ McCollum and Alexander-Walker in the backcourt, Daniels and Johnson on the wings, Okongwu at center — is genuinely solid, and there’s mutual interest reported between the Hawks and McCollum on a return deal.

The bigger question marks are Risacher and Corey Kispert, who combine for nearly $28 million and play similar roles. It’s hard to justify that overlap when the bench needs reinforcing. At least one of them is likely to be moved this summer.

Jonathan Kuminga’s team option is another decision point, though the expectation is that Atlanta brings him back — either as a contributor or as a trade chip. Jock Landale has expressed interest in returning, and his fit as a third center alongside a potential draft pick or free agent addition makes sense at the right price.

The salary cap is projected at $165 million next season. With the two draft picks added in, Atlanta would sit at roughly $163 million for 12 players — well below the luxury tax threshold and with real room to maneuver if they make the right moves.

Saleh said it plainly at exit interviews after the season: the Hawks are not one player away from contending for a championship. The Dejounte Murray trade still casts a long shadow over how aggressively Atlanta is willing to mortgage its future. The smarter play is building steadily — and getting the No. 8 pick right is the first step toward proving this front office can do exactly that.